CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-06T12:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13013/-1
CME Note: Associated with X9.3 flare from AR 12673.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-07T22:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -142
Dst min. time: 2017-09-08T02:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-08T08:00Z (-3.0h, +3.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Prediction Method: DBM + ESWF
Prediction Method Note:

CME take-off date & UTC time: Sep-6-2017 at 16h:00min
gamma = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 450-500 km/s,
R0 = 27 rs, v0 = 1300-1500 km/s, width = 40-45°, long = 30-35°
Rtarget = 1.01 AU 

Impact speed at target (at 1.01 AU): 800-900 km/s

Lead Time: 16.83 hour(s)
Difference: -9.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2017-09-07T05:40Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement