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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-06T12:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13013/-1
CME Note: Associated with X9.3 flare from AR 12673.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-07T22:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -142
Dst min. time: 2017-09-08T02:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-08T08:00Z (-3.0h, +3.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Prediction Method: DBM + ESWF
Prediction Method Note:

CME take-off date & UTC time: Sep-6-2017 at 16h:00min
gamma = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 450-500 km/s,
R0 = 27 rs, v0 = 1300-1500 km/s, width = 40-45°, long = 30-35°
Rtarget = 1.01 AU 

Impact speed at target (at 1.01 AU): 800-900 km/s

Lead Time: 16.83 hour(s)
Difference: -9.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2017-09-07T05:40Z

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